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He said the turmoil would be driven by a process of 'elite overproduction' in which the number of rich, elite people in society grows larger and they become ever more distant from those poorer. 'We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak.'Įxactly what will happen when this 'peak' occurs is unknown, and Professor Turchin says the theory does not predict events.
' The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. 'My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,' he says. Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future. He started out using maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. 'Cliodynamics is a new 'transdisciplinary discipline' that treats history as just another science,' Professor Turchin says. A professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called 'cliodynamics'.
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